![]() ![]() “Several factors came together during July and especially into August to suppress tropical cyclone activity,” he said, noting cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropics, drier-than-average air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and stronger-than-average vertical wind shear across the tropics. It was the strangely quiet August that was unanticipated, McNoldy said. We just happened to sample the near-normal outcome in this case.” Obviously, what this means is that if we repeated the same environmental conditions for 10 different hurricane seasons, six would be above normal and three would be near normal. For example, the official seasonal forecast for 2022 was for a 60 percent chance of above normal, 30 percent chance near normal, and a 10 percent chance of below normal. “Another element, however, is that seasonal hurricane forecasts have significant uncertainty and need to be interpreted from a probabilistic perspective. “ dust certainly was one factor in the smaller-than-expected hurricane activity,” Kirtman said. Indeed, the phenomenon, which can contribute to an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity by weakening wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Basin, remains robust, according to Ben Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the Rosenstiel School. The dearth of storm activity in July and August was especially surprising for a La Niña year. But when you zoom in to the specific events and distribution of activity, it was anything but typical,” said Brian McNoldy, senior research associate and tropical cyclone expert at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “The overall numbers tell the story of a fairly typical season. 30, 14 named storms had formed, of which eight became hurricanes and two intensified to major hurricanes with winds reaching 111 mph or greater. Three hurricanes formed in November (Lisa, Martin, and Nicole), tying 2022 with 2001 for the most Atlantic hurricane formations on record for that month.īy the time the 2022 season came to its official end on Nov. Then, something unusual happened: From July 3 to the end of August, the Atlantic had no named storm activity, marking the first time since 1941 that has ever happened, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.īut after an unusually calm first half, the season ramped up, with three destructive storms in the second half, punctuated by Hurricane Ian, which pummeled parts of Southwest Florida with devastating winds and storm surge on Sept. Throngs of Gulf and East Coast residents undoubtedly let out a collective moan last May when forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.Īn ongoing La Niña and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures would fuel another active season, they predicted. ![]()
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